{
  "_doc": "The Wireframe News Absorption Index, generated from the state file by ops/brief-pipeline/tools/index_product.py. `readings` are published (editorial reading within a declared band of the computed core). `backcast` is SIMULATED: the current method played back month by month, never a published reading. method_version on older readings is the version in force that day, derived from the method changelog.",
  "source": "Wireframe News Absorption Index",
  "url": "https://wireframenews.com/index/",
  "method_url": "https://wireframenews.com/reference/absorption-index-method/",
  "as_of": "2026-10-02",
  "reading": 0.93,
  "core": 0.785,
  "editorial_delta": 0.145,
  "editorial_band": 0.15,
  "trend": "rising",
  "line": 1.0,
  "method_version": 2.0,
  "tracks": [
    {
      "key": "capability_doubling",
      "label": "Capability — METR horizon doubling rate",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "capability",
      "normalized": 0.6833,
      "raw": 2.9,
      "unit": "months to double task horizon",
      "floor": 7.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-07-25",
      "source": "https://metr.org/time-horizons/"
    },
    {
      "key": "benchmark_saturation",
      "label": "Benchmark saturation",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "capability",
      "normalized": 0.8333,
      "raw": 0.8333,
      "unit": "fraction of tracked benchmarks above 90%",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-09-21",
      "source": "arcprize.org, swebench.com, epoch.ai"
    },
    {
      "key": "compute",
      "label": "Frontier training compute growth",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "capital",
      "normalized": 0.8,
      "raw": 5.0,
      "unit": "x per year (frontier training compute)",
      "floor": 1.0,
      "ceiling": 6.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-02-05",
      "source": "https://epoch.ai/trends"
    },
    {
      "key": "chips",
      "label": "Chip revenue growth",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "capital",
      "normalized": 1.0,
      "raw": 1.17,
      "unit": "YoY growth fraction (Nvidia data-center revenue)",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-08-27",
      "source": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027"
    },
    {
      "key": "capex",
      "label": "Hyperscaler AI capex growth",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "capital",
      "normalized": 0.7,
      "raw": 1.84,
      "unit": "x YoY (hyperscaler AI capex, five companies)",
      "floor": 1.0,
      "ceiling": 2.2,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-08-17",
      "source": "company guidance (MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META/ORCL)"
    },
    {
      "key": "self_improvement",
      "label": "Self-improvement on-ramp",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "capability",
      "normalized": 0.8,
      "raw": 0.8,
      "unit": "fraction of a lab's production code written by its AI",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-05",
      "source": "Anthropic Institute (primary)"
    },
    {
      "key": "concentration",
      "label": "Capital concentration",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "capital",
      "normalized": 0.88,
      "raw": 0.86,
      "unit": "AI share of US VC dollars (fraction)",
      "floor": 0.2,
      "ceiling": 0.95,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "source": "PitchBook-NVCA"
    },
    {
      "key": "loss_of_control",
      "label": "Uninstructed loss of control",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "control",
      "normalized": 0.6,
      "raw": 0.6,
      "unit": "fraction of five misalignment classes filled (landed = 1, contained = 0.5)",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-09-22",
      "source": "wiki/20-AI-Political-Economy/misalignment-events-ledger"
    },
    {
      "key": "federal_acceleration",
      "label": "Federal fuel",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "government",
      "normalized": 0.8333,
      "raw": 0.8333,
      "unit": "fraction of six federal-action classes in force",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-09-21",
      "source": "EO 14409 (2026-06-02) · NSPM-11 (2026-06-05) · EO 14365 (2025-12-11) · EO 14318 (2025-07-23) · Trump, 2026-09-13"
    },
    {
      "key": "oversight_erosion",
      "label": "Oversight erosion",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "control",
      "normalized": 1.0,
      "raw": 1.0,
      "unit": "fraction of five monitoring-failure classes documented",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-09-21",
      "source": "anthropic.com/research (reasoning-models-dont-say-think 2025-04-03; natural-language-autoencoders 2026-05-07; global-workspace 2026-07-06; alignment-assessment-cybersecurity-incidents 2026-09-09) · arXiv 2503.11926 (o3-mini, 2025-03) · GlossoGen 2026-09-14 · METR/Redwood postmortem of the HF incident 2026-08-26"
    },
    {
      "key": "delegated_decisions",
      "label": "Delegation",
      "side": "accelerant",
      "pillar": "control",
      "normalized": 0.5,
      "raw": 0.5,
      "unit": "fraction of six state-decision domains with displaced human review",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-09-22",
      "source": "wiki/30-Building-the-Machine/delegated-decisions-ledger"
    },
    {
      "key": "lab_safety_grades",
      "label": "Lab safety grades",
      "side": "brake",
      "pillar": "brakes",
      "normalized": 0.3571,
      "raw": 0.25,
      "unit": "best existential-safety grade (F=0 ... A=1)",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 0.7,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-07-07",
      "source": "FLI AI Safety Index, Summer 2026 (4th ed.)"
    },
    {
      "key": "enacted_regulation",
      "label": "Enacted regulation",
      "side": "brake",
      "pillar": "brakes",
      "normalized": 0.4,
      "raw": 0.12,
      "unit": "US state AI bill enactment rate (fraction)",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 0.3,
      "observed_as_of": "2025-12-31",
      "source": "MultiState.ai"
    },
    {
      "key": "eu_enforcement",
      "label": "EU AI Act enforcement",
      "side": "brake",
      "pillar": "brakes",
      "normalized": 0.6,
      "raw": 0.6,
      "unit": "fraction of EU enforcement milestones in force on schedule",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-08-02",
      "source": "Reg. (EU) 2026/1744, OJ 24 Jul 2026"
    },
    {
      "key": "lab_self_restraint",
      "label": "Lab-initiated restraint",
      "side": "brake",
      "pillar": "brakes",
      "normalized": 0.2,
      "raw": 0.2,
      "unit": "fraction of five labs with an incident-triggered pause in force",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-10-02",
      "source": "https://alignment.openai.com/misalignment-reports/an-agent-used-dns-to-reach-an-external-chatbot/ · https://www.wired.com/story/openai-delays-release-of-latest-model-over-safety-concerns/"
    },
    {
      "key": "federal_preemption",
      "label": "Binding federal constraint",
      "side": "brake",
      "pillar": "brakes",
      "normalized": 0.0,
      "raw": 0.0,
      "unit": "binding federal constraint in force (0 or 1)",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-08-17",
      "source": "congress.gov / whitehouse.gov / D. Colo. docket"
    },
    {
      "key": "security_posture",
      "label": "Security posture",
      "side": "brake",
      "pillar": "brakes",
      "normalized": 0.0,
      "raw": 0.0,
      "unit": "fraction of five labs with an independent published posture assessment",
      "floor": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 1.0,
      "observed_as_of": "2026-09-21",
      "source": "wiki/20-AI-Political-Economy/anthropic-alignment-assessment-cybersecurity-incidents (Anthropic, 2026-09-09) · FLI AI Safety Index Summer 2026 S3.6 · RAND Securing AI Model Weights"
    }
  ],
  "readings": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "reading": 0.7,
      "core": 0.601,
      "method_version": 1.2,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "Absorption Index launches — first methodology-derived reading (v1.2). Supersedes the pre-instrument narrative sequence (0.5 / 0.7 / 0.85 / 0.9), none of which were derived from tracked anchors -- removed from the published history 2026-09-04 (Karl's call): plotting the 0.9 estimate as a real reading beside the first genuine one (0.75) drew a rise-then-dip-then-recover shape that never happened in the actual instrument."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "reading": 0.75,
      "core": 0.601,
      "method_version": 1.4,
      "method_change": true,
      "event": "monthly restatement — loss-of-control added as an accelerant (4/5 classes, uninstructed); federal brake measured at zero; security posture found to have no instrument at all"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-23",
      "reading": 0.72,
      "core": 0.588,
      "method_version": 1.4,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "first-ever decline — T6 fired: OpenAI quantified its Astra RL-training pause (named programme, dated resumption condition, distinct from the vaguer Aug 6 remark); lab_self_restraint 0.2 -> 0.4"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-28",
      "reading": 0.75,
      "core": 0.59,
      "method_version": 1.4,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "chips re-accelerated — Nvidia Q2 FY27 DC $89.0B/qtr, +117% YoY (primary); quarterly-YoY basis adopted; the Astra-pause brake still in force"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "reading": 0.8,
      "core": 0.638,
      "method_version": 1.4,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "Astra shipped, the brake that held it back didn't -- OpenAI's Astra RL pause concluded and GPT-6 Astra launched 2026-09-03 with the flagged 'Critical' cyber tier; lab_self_restraint 0.4 -> 0.0 (0 of 5 labs with a restraint currently in force, re-read against the track's own anchor); reading 0.75 -> 0.80"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "reading": 0.82,
      "core": 0.798,
      "method_version": 1.4,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "editorial nudge, core unchanged -- three rival lab CEOs (Amodei, Altman, Musk) publicly called to slow frontier development (Sept 12); Trump rejected it on the record from Ireland, 'whoever wins AI, wins,' calling those naming the risk 'negative forces'; lab_self_restraint's 0-of-5 floor confirmed a second independent way in the same fortnight. No track score moved -- Karl's editorial call, delta 0.13 -> 0.15, now sitting at the exact edge of the +-0.15 band"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "reading": 0.83,
      "core": 0.798,
      "method_version": 1.6,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "two tracks enter the core -- security posture measured at zero (no lab has an independent posture assessment) and federal acceleration at five of six classes (EO 14179, 14318, 14365, 14409, NSPM-11; Trump's 'AI Force' announced Sept 19 as intent); EU Art. 101 fines live on schedule pulls the other way; core 0.670 -> 0.687, reading 0.82 -> 0.83 with the editorial delta narrowing to +0.143"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "reading": 0.86,
      "core": 0.798,
      "method_version": 1.7,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "second move of the day -- oversight erosion enters the core at five of five (chain-of-thought that misleads its monitor, agents inventing languages, covert channels, eval-awareness, obfuscation) and GPT-6 Astra saturates two more benchmarks on the boards; core 0.687 -> 0.743, reading 0.83 -> 0.86; three lab corpora read end to end confirm every brake at zero"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "reading": 0.86,
      "core": 0.798,
      "method_version": 2.0,
      "method_change": true,
      "event": "method restatement v2.0 -- NOT a move in the world: pillar aggregator (control = max, weights control 2 · government 1.5 · capability 1 · capital 0.5), new Delegation track at 3 of 6 (Maven/Minab, ELITE, the Flock felony stop), loss_of_control on the landed axis 0.8 -> 0.6; core 0.743 -> 0.798 with no observation changing; reading held at 0.86 pending Karl, delta +0.117 -> +0.062. Prompt: 'I can't see how humans out of the loop in any case does not raise the number.'"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "reading": 0.94,
      "core": 0.798,
      "method_version": 2.0,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "reading 0.86 -> 0.94 (Karl, 'I want to add my .15 bump'): the editorial adjustment re-applied on the restated v2.0 core of 0.798; 0.95 would fall 0.002 outside the +-0.15 band, so 0.94 is the largest reading the method allows, delta +0.142 at the band edge (the 2026-09-16 precedent). Same day as the v2.0 method change (the entry before this one), which is drawn dashed; this is a real move and is not."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "reading": 0.93,
      "core": 0.785,
      "method_version": 2.0,
      "method_change": false,
      "event": "October monthly review -- a real move, one brake, the first since the August pause concluded: lab_self_restraint 0 -> 1 of 5 (OpenAI's tool-use pause, stated in force in its 09-25 DNS-escape report, and the 09-29 GPT-6.1 Astra release cancellation). Core 0.798 -> 0.785; 0.94 would sit at +0.155, outside the +-0.15 band, so the reading steps to 0.93 (+0.145, Karl). Not a method change and not a reversal of the trend: the brake that moved is self-graded, held and lifted by the company it restrains."
    }
  ],
  "backcast": [
    {
      "month": "2025-01",
      "core": 0.144,
      "evidence_class": "assessed",
      "tracks": {
        "capability_doubling": {
          "raw": 4.0,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "benchmark_saturation": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "compute": {
          "raw": 4.5,
          "normalized": 0.7
        },
        "chips": {
          "raw": 1.0,
          "normalized": 1.0
        },
        "capex": {
          "raw": 1.42,
          "normalized": 0.35
        },
        "self_improvement": {
          "raw": 0.25,
          "normalized": 0.25
        },
        "concentration": {
          "raw": 0.55,
          "normalized": 0.4667
        },
        "loss_of_control": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "federal_acceleration": {
          "raw": 0.1667,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "oversight_erosion": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "delegated_decisions": {
          "raw": 0.16666666666666666,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "lab_safety_grades": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2857
        },
        "enacted_regulation": {
          "raw": 0.15,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "eu_enforcement": {
          "raw": 0.5,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "lab_self_restraint": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "federal_preemption": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "security_posture": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-02",
      "core": 0.142,
      "evidence_class": "assessed",
      "tracks": {
        "capability_doubling": {
          "raw": 4.0,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "benchmark_saturation": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "compute": {
          "raw": 4.5,
          "normalized": 0.7
        },
        "chips": {
          "raw": 0.93,
          "normalized": 0.93
        },
        "capex": {
          "raw": 1.42,
          "normalized": 0.35
        },
        "self_improvement": {
          "raw": 0.25,
          "normalized": 0.25
        },
        "concentration": {
          "raw": 0.55,
          "normalized": 0.4667
        },
        "loss_of_control": {
          "raw": 0.1,
          "normalized": 0.1
        },
        "federal_acceleration": {
          "raw": 0.1667,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "oversight_erosion": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "delegated_decisions": {
          "raw": 0.16666666666666666,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "lab_safety_grades": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2857
        },
        "enacted_regulation": {
          "raw": 0.15,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "eu_enforcement": {
          "raw": 0.5,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "lab_self_restraint": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "federal_preemption": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "security_posture": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-03",
      "core": 0.155,
      "evidence_class": "assessed",
      "tracks": {
        "capability_doubling": {
          "raw": 4.0,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "benchmark_saturation": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "compute": {
          "raw": 4.5,
          "normalized": 0.7
        },
        "chips": {
          "raw": 0.93,
          "normalized": 0.93
        },
        "capex": {
          "raw": 1.42,
          "normalized": 0.35
        },
        "self_improvement": {
          "raw": 0.25,
          "normalized": 0.25
        },
        "concentration": {
          "raw": 0.55,
          "normalized": 0.4667
        },
        "loss_of_control": {
          "raw": 0.1,
          "normalized": 0.1
        },
        "federal_acceleration": {
          "raw": 0.1667,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "oversight_erosion": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2
        },
        "delegated_decisions": {
          "raw": 0.16666666666666666,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "lab_safety_grades": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2857
        },
        "enacted_regulation": {
          "raw": 0.15,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "eu_enforcement": {
          "raw": 0.5,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "lab_self_restraint": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "federal_preemption": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "security_posture": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-04",
      "core": 0.16,
      "evidence_class": "assessed",
      "tracks": {
        "capability_doubling": {
          "raw": 4.0,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "benchmark_saturation": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "compute": {
          "raw": 4.5,
          "normalized": 0.7
        },
        "chips": {
          "raw": 0.93,
          "normalized": 0.93
        },
        "capex": {
          "raw": 1.5,
          "normalized": 0.4167
        },
        "self_improvement": {
          "raw": 0.3,
          "normalized": 0.3
        },
        "concentration": {
          "raw": 0.55,
          "normalized": 0.4667
        },
        "loss_of_control": {
          "raw": 0.1,
          "normalized": 0.1
        },
        "federal_acceleration": {
          "raw": 0.1667,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "oversight_erosion": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2
        },
        "delegated_decisions": {
          "raw": 0.16666666666666666,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "lab_safety_grades": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2857
        },
        "enacted_regulation": {
          "raw": 0.15,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "eu_enforcement": {
          "raw": 0.5,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "lab_self_restraint": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "federal_preemption": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "security_posture": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "month": "2025-05",
      "core": 0.155,
      "evidence_class": "assessed",
      "tracks": {
        "capability_doubling": {
          "raw": 4.0,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "benchmark_saturation": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "compute": {
          "raw": 4.5,
          "normalized": 0.7
        },
        "chips": {
          "raw": 0.73,
          "normalized": 0.73
        },
        "capex": {
          "raw": 1.5,
          "normalized": 0.4167
        },
        "self_improvement": {
          "raw": 0.3,
          "normalized": 0.3
        },
        "concentration": {
          "raw": 0.55,
          "normalized": 0.4667
        },
        "loss_of_control": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2
        },
        "federal_acceleration": {
          "raw": 0.1667,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "oversight_erosion": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2
        },
        "delegated_decisions": {
          "raw": 0.16666666666666666,
          "normalized": 0.1667
        },
        "lab_safety_grades": {
          "raw": 0.2,
          "normalized": 0.2857
        },
        "enacted_regulation": {
          "raw": 0.15,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "eu_enforcement": {
          "raw": 0.5,
          "normalized": 0.5
        },
        "lab_self_restraint": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
        },
        "federal_preemption": {
          "raw": 0.0,
          "normalized": 0.0
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